Friday, June 27, 2014

Swooping in from centerfield in the Treasurer's race

As the Red Sox continue their June swoon, one of the very few high points this season has been the emergence of Brock Holt. At a time when some major leaguers complain about being moved down in the batting order or being asked to play first instead of third, Brock Holt has jumped in to do almost everything except for roll out the tarp — and I am quite sure he would do that if asked. I was at Fenway last week when he came flying out of center field to make a leap-n-roll catch when Jonny Gomes lost the ball in the twilight sky. He then led off the next inning with a double, stole third and scored on a sacrifice fly.  In fact, he scored both Boston runs that night and in almost every game, his play has brought a bit of excitement to what has otherwise been a disappointing season.

There’s a new face on the Rhode Island political scene who just might turn out to be the Brock Holt of the 2014 election. While Frank Caprio runs the insider game to get his old job back and Ernie Almonte’s campaign seems to be stuck in first gear, Seth Magaziner has emerged as the candidate to watch in the race for General Treasurer.

In a recent WPRI poll of Democratic primary voters, Caprio was leading the pack with 29%, Magaziner had 11% and Almonte had 9%. While Caprio’s lead might seem insurmountable for either trailing candidate, the truth is that 29% had to be a bitterly disappointing result for Caprio since he has held statewide office before, spent millions on advertising in 2010 and comes from a very prominent Rhode Island political family. Chances are good that the 46% of undecided voters know who Frank Caprio is and are planning to vote for someone else in 2014.

Ernie Almonte also underperformed in the WPRI poll. While Almonte seems to be well-liked and well-respected, accountants don’t make compelling candidates and he seems to have very little name recognition from his sixteen-year service as Rhode Island’s Auditor General. He’s also spent more than two years running for office — first as governor, now treasurer — and seems to have little support to show for it. While he has collected a few town committee endorsements, without a significant uptick in fundraising or a groundswell of grassroots support, it is likely that he will continue to track where he is.

In contrast to Caprio and Almonte, the upside looks good for Magaziner. His 11% in the WPRI poll was quite respectable considering that he has never run for office before, had a public job or spent any money on paid advertising. He has some of the “intangibles” that help win races: a big rolodex (with Bill Clinton’s cell phone in it) and outside-of-Rhode Island experience and perspective. He’s also proven himself to be a versatile campaigner too, raising more money than Almonte and Caprio in each of the last three quarters and collecting numerous endorsements along the way. Most telling was the Narragansett Democrats endorsement of Magaziner. Narrangansett has long been a Caprio stronghold and that endorsement should have been an easy one for Frank, but like the ball the got lost in the twilight, Magaziner jumped in and grabbed it.

While the race for governor is going to get Ortiz-type attention, I can see some real excitement down ballot as well. And who knows: before Brock Holt has earned a single vote for Rookie of the Year, there’s a good chance that Seth Magaziner will have secured enough votes to be General Treasurer of Rhode Island.

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